History…  This year will be the 93^rd edition of The Western & Southern Open for the ladies.

Due to Covid restrictions last year’s competition was held in New York to prevent travelling and risk of spreading the disease.

Victoria Azarenka won the title last year after Naomi Osaka was forced to give a walkover in the final due to Left hamstring injury

Favourites/Top Seeds/Dark Horses….

Top Half

World no.1 Ashleigh Barty skipped Montreal taking more rest after losing in R1 to Sorribes Tormo in Tokyo Olympics. With 2000 points clear on no.2 Naomi Osaka in the rankings and only SF to defend in Cincy and R16 in Us Open from 2019, she is in no rush for anything. She didn’t travel to the US at all last year because of Covid concerns. Barty is 15-3 on hard courts but her losses have come to surprising opposition such as Collins in Adelaide, Muchova in Aussie Open and recently to Tormo in Tokyo as of course being huge favorite in all of those. She has no problem dispatching top 20 and top 10 players but outside of that is where she has faced problems, quite unusual.

Defending champion Victoria Azarenka is in Barty’s bracket with a potential meeting coming in R3.

The Belarussian has won he title 2 times and is 17-5 on this competition with +39% ROI and seems to enjoy the hot and humid fast courts in Mason, Ohio.

Barbora Krejcikova, who is the newest addition to top 10, hasn’t played this event in her career. The French Open champion has 0 points to defend in August and only 38 points in September and she can progress even further with good showings in the coming weeks. Everything is quite new for her as not long ago she was playing ITF tournaments so it’s not surprising that her record on American soil is only 18-14 and -12.9% ROI.  She however made it to the Final in Dubai in March and won the title in Prague in July but she didn’t face a player from to 70 there. She has a hard 1^st round matchup against Kasatkina which I would fade her for sure if she is a bigger favorite than -130.

If losing to Rybakina in Tokyo wasn’t such a surprise, following up with one against Siniakova in Montreal could be considered as one for Garbine Muguruza. She has a title in 2017 and a SF in 2016 to her resume from Cincinnati. Her great start of the year has been overshadowed with recent woes. Since her title in Dubai in March she had failed to win 3 matches in a row in the same tournament until Tokyo in the end of July. She still is impressive 24-7 on hard courts with +5.6 ROI in 2021 alone, but only 3-2 with -17.2% on American soil for the same time frame so her confidence is low at the moment and can’t make a case of backing her as a favorite.

Elina Svitolina returned to action after the Bronze Medal win in Tokyo. Her stay in Montreal was short lived as she lost to Konta in her first appearance. She is 18-8 for the year on hard courts with +18.8% ROI so I personally look for her to bounce back after a bad loss in Canada, but that won’t be that easy with a R2 match against Sakkari or Kerber looming.

Iga Swiatek has lost some of her form since failing to defend her French Open title in June. Her grass court season was disappointing, and she followed that up with early exit in the Tokyo Olympics as well. She might be 12-5 on the year on the hard surface, but she is awful -15.7% ROI mainly because of her loss to Konjuh in Miami. Iga skipped Montreal which I do think should have been a better suited ground for her and with lack of results and bad losses as he favorite is one to look for to oppose If odds are good which should happen as early as R2 with facing either Kontaveit or Jabeur both capable to beat her.

Bottom Half

Naomi Osaka has been all over the place since she gave walkover to Ana Bogdan in French Open R2 to focus on her mental health.

She returned to action at home in the Tokyo Olympics but was disappointing in losing to Marketa Vondrousova in R3 as a -710 favorite. In her time off the court, she focused on fashion, and I am not entirely sure she is in her right mental state to compete yet. If Cori Gauff wins her first match against a qualifier, she is one for sure to bet on against Naomi in my opinion as should offer good amount of value.

Belinda Bencic will be playing her first match after winning Gold Medal in Tokyo on Singles and Silver from the Doubles competition. So far players who competed in the latter stages in the tournament there haven’t had much success on their return from Tokyo so a similar scenario may happen here, and Marketa is experienced enough to cause an upset early on at a good underdog price.

Bianca Andreescu hasn’t shown glimpses of her old form yet with injuries and illnesses put a dent on her fragile body from most part of the last 2 years. With only 4 wins since beginning of June even the home crowd at Montreal didn’t’ do wonders as he was beaten by Jabeur in R2. She is only 21 so plenty of time to figure out what’s best for her body and return to old form which saw her winning the US Open in 2019.  She is remarkable 51-9 playing in the US and 106-30 on hard courts all time with pleasant figures on the ROI side as well, but until some sort of breakthrough happens, she needs to be opposed anytime she is a favorite in a match.

The current SF in Montreal is the projected QF in Cincinnati as Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova are once again in collision course. Karolina has slowly rediscovering form after a brutal 1^st part of the year with only Rome Final and Wimbledon Final to salvage some points after a bad stretch.  Karolina barely survived Vekic in Montreal R1 but since things got rolling.

Meanwhile Sabalenka has an outstanding year with 38-12 record on all surfaces and is very near of overtaking Osaka as the No.2 player in the world.  Aryna has lost in R2 in both Cincinnati and US Open last year, so she doesn’t have to feel pressure of defending points here which after a deep run in Canada could open a good spot in value to be faded early on.

Simona Halep who is out from top 10 from a long time is sandwiched between Aryna and Karolina and she could be the difference makes in this portion of the draw while trying to get back to form. She didn’t look that bad in her 1^st match back against Collins and with 3 lost Finals and 1 SF from 9 appearances in Ohio she could benefit in spite of hard draw.

Bets

Very hard to predict what will happen and where the value is in the whole draw and with my current previews, I pointed to players who has to be opposed given the odds.

Don’t have a clear-cut favorite anywhere in the draw but I do think Azarenka has another deep showing here for a 2^nd consecutive year and in consecutive weeks with Halep emerging from the bottom in a speedy return to form and take it match by match as I think plenty of surprises will go down and top seeds will flew out early.