rp.zoran

Riding this one again, this time a straight set win, as I liked what I saw from Djokovic against Borges. I think the models are heavily underrating Dj...

I say this is an extremely good value on Djokovic. Borges also hasn't played since the US Open (excluding an easy Davis Cup match), where he lost to Tien 4, 1 and 2. Even though at this point of his career I think it's great to chase good odds on Djokovic's opponents, this is not that moment. If he chose to play in Beijing, I'm pretty sure he's doing it for a reason and that he is reasonably healthy. We don't know how his body is going to react or what kind of health issue he's facing, but given that he likes playing in Asia and has tremendous support from the crowd there, I think everything points to an easy win here. He didn't come to lose in the first round. Definitely not the one to miss. Taking it at the opening odds.

Agreeing and tailing 100percenhit's pick. Svitolina is in great form and returning so well this week, which makes me think she's gotta get at least a set in this final.

She's also won the last two matches against Gauff, which gives a bit of a mental edge, even though they still haven't played each other on clay.

I see clear value on Andreeva in this final. She has won last three tiebreaks across her last three matches in Madrid, which shows that her clutch level, along with her focus, is at a high level. On top of that, she's already 2-0 in Masters finals and has won a clay tournament this year (Linz a couple of weeks ago).

She has also held 84.2% of her service games this fortnight, while on the other side, Kostyuk has been facing on average close to one break point per service game, which can definitely make her game shaky and put her under constant pressure. And keep in mind, this is the first big final for Kostyuk, so she lacks experience on this stage.

I want to take the opening odds here, as I expect the price on Andreeva to drop as the final gets closer. I'd take it down to 1.55 at most.

Exceptional value here. Sinner's on a roll, and the odds look slightly inflated due to Jodar's run and the home crowd. I don't think Jodar is ready yet to take a set, especially given that this is their first matchup.

Last match of the season, so let's go with a maximum bet. Andrew's not having a great week (compared to his standards), not to add that he's absolutely mentally and physically exhausted. Novak was here so many times before and he clearly knows how to handle this kind of pressure. Don't forget that he loves these situations. It is hard to find a reason to play when you've got nearly 17000 points and 4 consecutive GS titles and that should explain his cooling after Roland Garros. I don't see the crowd being any factor to be honest, Novak played plenty of matches with crowd going completely against him. Sometimes he plays better when the crowd's not cheering for him than the other way around. Well, Novak, there you have it. The first time that the last match of the season decides the YE#1. Motive is there, body is ready. Put Andrew where he belongs. Show the world who's the king.