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That first set break from Draper at 5-4 when serving for the set changed everything, pity

Congrats to Ruud for his first Masters 1000

This should be a tough matchup for Ruud. His backhand has always been his weakest stroke, and lefties have always been able to exploit that. He has a 4-13 career record against lefties when priced as an underdog and a poor 1-9 career record in finals when priced as an underdog.

Draper is playing his best tennis ever, and the fast conditions in Madrid suit his style. I see him punishing Casper's soft backhand with his forehand and just being too powerful for him.

If this were Jack's first Masters 1000 final, I would be slightly concerned about potential nerves, but he did amazingly well in Indian Wells and should be very confident for this one.

Jack is also holding 96.9% of his serves in Madrid, and it will be very hard for Casper to break him if Jack targets his backhand with his lefty serve, while Casper can't win as many free points and will be always under pressure as soon as Jack gets a ball on his forehand

Don't see what De Minaur can do here to harm Alcaraz, the courts are relatively slow in Rotterdam and the Australian's counter-punching game and flat shots won't be enough to hit consistent winners against Alcaraz.

Carlos played a long match yesterday but don't think fatigue will be an issue and unless he has a very poor performance, he should win this.

De Minaur also has a terrible record in finals when underdog while Carlos wins pretty much all recent ones that were not against Sinner or Djokovic.

Can't understand the love for De Minaur. He's 0-9 in the h2h and only won a single set. The matchup is terrible for him, he's a tremendous grinder and defender but gets outplayed by Sinner's firepower.

True that Sinner had some physical struggles in the last match, but was still able to produce a very good level of tennis. He has 48 hours to recover to this match, which will be played at night and the temperature will go down tomorrow, so very cool conditions.

Was expecting Sinner to be priced around 1.10 for this, similar to the match with Rune, who definitely had more weapons to bother him. De Minaur also has 2-9 career in Slams against top 10 players, defeating Medvedev and Nishikori, two baseline players and not really heavy hitters like Sinner.

Very interesting price on Carreno Busta. Can't give that much credit to his defeat against Andrej Martin. The conditions in Quito are incredibly tough and Pablo said that he could barely breathe after the points. He should feel much more comfortable in Buenos Aires and already won a doubles match together with Pablo Cuevas. Garcia-Lopez got a good win against Berlocq and is always a very good competitor. However, Pablo seems to be at a much higher level at this moment and should be just too solid and strong for his fellow countryman.

Very strange price on Herbert. He's definitely the better player on this match-up and the h2h shows that. Even though Schepper already played a couple of Indoor events before this tournament and also played the qualifying, Herbert had a good preparation also on the Davis Cup where he played a doubles match and practiced on Indoor conditions.

Wozniacki was incredibly poor on pressure points in the 2nd set. 0/7 converted vs 1/1 from Halep.

Won three tie breaks against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, lost three tie breaks against Grigor Dimitrov.

Overall Dimitrov was the better player and definitely raised his level today. Congrats to all Grigor's backers.

Hopefully this match will have a better outcome for my bet than the previous one. Two weeks ago I picked Dimitrov but Nick staged an incredible comeback. This time I have to go the other way not only due to Kyrgios outstanding performance against Tsonga but also due to Dimitrov's poor displays. It has one of the best matches of the tournament between Nick and Jo. The French was just on fire but the Australian showed a great composure on the important moments to win three tie breaks. It was great to see him so motivated and he knows that this tournament is a great opportunity for him to go far. On the other hand, Dimitrov has struggled with form throughout 2018. His serve has been the weakest part of his game with an average of 0.49 double faults per service game. In the previous round he committed 15 double faults and 63 unforced errors against Rublev. The Bulgarian can't give so many free points on his serve to Nick, who is one of the best servers in tennis history and almost impossible to break on this fast court conditions in Melbourne. Best of luck to all!