TennisPilot

Match odds wrong way round

Match odds wrong way round

Can someone please sort these prices out..

This player did not play Mahut in the US Open qualies; it was a different player Soon Woo Kwon.. link to the profile follows.. http://tennisinsight.com/player/15477/soon-woo-kwon/

There is a mistake here - this player, Soon Woo Kwon, played Mahut in the US Open qualification but it is not showing up here; instead it is showing up on the profile of player 'Soon-Woo Kwon'.. Link to this random player's profile here.. (http://tennisinsight.com/player/13886/soon-woo-kwon/)

Odds the wrong way around I believe?

We have decided against tipping anything from this match for subscribers. Nadal has had Federer's number in the past but injuries and a general decrease in form saw a loss in Basel last year. Those were similar though not identical conditions - the court speed is impossible to pin down but if Fed feels it is fast that likely bears some relevance. Despite Nadal playing well this week he was clearly vulnerable to big serving, aggressive players, being taken to 5 by both Dimitrov and Zverev. He has been exceptional in 5 setters over his career and far better than Federer in matches where both players won 50% of points. Nonetheless, his edge, even in that area, is waning with back to back losses against Pouille, Verdasco and Fognini in his last three fifth sets before this tournament. Plus it's easy to overlook how close came Nadal to losing in this tournament. He exposed 2 break points against Dimitrov at *3-4 15-40 in the fifth and before Zverev cramped at 40-15 *2-3 on serve in the fifth that match too looked like it could go either way. Clearly there is a trend here of Nadal outlasing his opponents, but surely it's important how fine he is cutting these matches, and that he has started losing some. He spoke about the importance of his win over Zverev in 5 for his confidence because he had lost a couple back to back coming into that match. That confidence can go quickly. We saw it against Pouille at the US Open. He missed an easy forehand mid way through the deciding set tiebreak and you could see his heart drop. The margins are so fine at this level that I am hesitant to back someone whose greatest asset, his confidence, is vulnerable. Federer is in a good position if his health holds up. It's a factor which favours Nadal, but could so easily be irrelevant if Federer's knee is fine and his energy is high. This is a historical event and Federer knows it will likely be his last chance to defeat Nadal in a Grand Slam final, finally stopping the onslaught that is their H2H, so adrenaline may become a big factor. In the interview paulmurphy talks about, Federer clearly points out that his approach in the past was too passive and influenced by their many early meetings on clay. His approach going into this match will be different to those of the past, similar I imagine to his approach in Basel. There are a few key strategies top players us against Nadal. Importantly for Fed is going for aggressive serves to force a lot of cheap points. If he misses too many on the day, then fine, but he will know that going for a safe serve is only going to lead to Nadal grinding him down. Taking time away and playing hyper aggressive on return from high up on the baseline is the second major strategy. Federer's wins over Nadal see him taking the ball early to stop Nadal winding up his shots or building a rally. Nadal does have a tendency to hit short in rallies so if Federer can attack and then finish points at the net he will always be applying pressure on return. He has been hitting far more backhands down the line this tournament than I have seen him in the past and I have a sneaky suspicion we will see that shot a lot from Federer. Taking the backhand early down the line usually means getting a middle or cross court backhand from Nadal given the difficulty of changing direction without time. That gives Federer a forehand which he can then either power deep down the line or, if it's inside out, take short up the court, one of his trademark forehand winners. Watch their Indian Wells match in 2012 and you see Federer execute all of this superbly. Accurate, consistent serving giving plenty of cheap points, relentless aggression on return taking advantage of Nadal's weaker serve and resolve from the start to end of the match. This is the most competitive match these two have played in a long time and neither is at their best physically. They know that and there will likely be ebbs and flows through this match, adjustments, shifts of momentum and energy. This is a clash of styles and the H2H reflects the fact that Nadal got into Federer's head early on. He said as much in the interview after his semi-final. He knows how to beat Nadal. He has done it before and will be able to remember vividly what it takes. Nadal always plays the same way against Federer, grinding him down with his heavy and consistent baseline game. But when Fed plays aggressively Nadal can only try harder and hope Federer blinks. Nadal has the slight edge physically, so enjoys sight favoritism, but Federer knows he will win on good form. It's a battle of physicality and belief in the end, and this is a long way of saying that I feel these are things too difficult for to predict.