thiagoBRAZIL

Lets take here in consideration the last 2 rounds, that both players faced good opponents.

Alcaraz:
- 62% of winning points on 1st serve against Cilic and 61% of 2nd. (WTA) - Gave 9 break points - 3 Aces
- 63% of winning points os 1st serve against Sinner and 59% of 2nd (WTA) - Gave 16 break points - 5 Aces

Tiafoe:
- 76% of winning points on 1st serve against Nadal and 60% of 2nd (ATP) - Gave 6 breaks - 18 Aces
- 88% of winning points on 1st serve against Rublev and 63% of 2nd (ATP) - Gave 4 breaks - 18 Aces

We have a saying in Brazil that says: "Numbers are like string bikinis". Shows a lot, but hide the principal.

Lets try to check the principal:

- I watched all the matches of these 2, Tiafoe is really playing unbelievable. I even watched an exibition match preparing to Wimbledom (its on youtube), and the difference was huge. Looks like Tiafoe knows how to play against Carlos.

- And one thing I dont forget of Alcaraz x Sinner's match was on 4th set (2x1) Sinner and Alcaraz 1 break below and looked like he had tears in his eyes and complained with Ferrero "I dont know how to serve" (and in fact, that time of the match he was serving horrible.

- Alcaraz has a BIG, BIG heart.

- I dont mind a lot about the public, americans knows how to honor who is playing best.
- About Alcaraz fitness I'm just a lil lil lil bit scared... Because I bet on him against Sinner and I am in the same time zone as him, and I just got to sleep 3 hours later... I think that day he went to bed 7am... But how his match is at night, I think he will be rested.

At the last game of his last match Alcaraz and Sinner played a rally with around 20-30 balls, and he was fine... but we never know, coulded be the adrenaline.

What I see is: Tiafoe winning his service games easy, and Alcaraz strugling on his service but prevailing on rallies. So, I stick with the guy who pays @2.85, with better server stats, more rested, playing at "home".