This will be his ...

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I have to bet ND here. It'...

Quick turnaround for the WTA stars here. I don't think either will be too fatigued given their straight set wins. Rybakina was able to squeak past Swiatek in a high level affair, and Pegula took advantage of a rough patch of play from Anisimova to get her win. To me, they've both shown a high level so far, but Rybakina had the slightly more impressive quarterfinal to me.

Swiatek and Rybakina was one I sort of got right. I had a feeling neither would be able to play much defense against their opponent, and it was true. Rybakina's serve wasn't really firing, but he mixed in enough body serves to keep Swiatek off balance. When she had a full swing in the rally, she was able to rush Iga and cause errors, especially on the backhand cross. The first set saw both of them miss aggressive returns on key points, and although Rybakina won the match, it felt like whoever lost the first set would have a really tough time regrouping to make a comeback. All those opportunities and then and overtime loss just makes ...

Svitolina faced Gauff, and it really felt like a chicken-and-egg scenario. Was the match lopsided because Gauff completely lost her timing on the forehand and serve, or did that breakdown happen because of the pressure Svitolina kept applying? Gauff's level dipped hard, but Svitolina never flinched or got distracted by it. She struck the ball cleanly, hit a steady stream of winners, and looked incredibly efficient. Even when Gauff settled down for a short stretch in the second set, Svitolina slammed the door. She do...

To preface, this is partially a hedge against my 10/1 on Mandy and partially a play based on the value my model projects.

Pegula has played her way into the second week of a Slam and convinced me she has a real shot to go deeper. Keys definitely helped her out with a lot of mistakes, but Pegula already had the better of their head-to-head, and Keys didn't come in looking particularly sha...

This is exactly why I jumped on Iva at 150/1 before the tournament started-I genuinely believed she'd reach this stage. This is where the real uncertainty begins, but when you're holding a ticket at that kind of price, you accept the risk.

Iva has reached her first Grand Slam quarterfinal. That achievement on its own is massive, yet what really stands out is how she's done it. For the past week Jovic has been overwhelming her opponents from the baseline, and her level hasn't dipped. Beating Paolini shows that, against players in her general tier, she can absolutely handle anyone. I expected her to get past Putintseva, but to win 6-0, 6-1 against someone whose whole identity is defending and waiting for errors is the perfect snapshot of where Jovic's game is. When she's dictating, she barely m...

I'm calli...

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This is one of the tougher matches for me to predict, but the head-to-head clearly tilts toward Gauff. Muchova is often talked about as a dangerous dark horse at the slams, and it's easy to see why. She brings serious power, excellent shot-making, and stays calm in big moments. Her game is very complete, though sometimes it feels li...

The Putintseva vs Sonmez match was thrilling, but the outcome probably wasn't ideal from a neutral viewer's perspective. In the last round, Putintseva shifted very quickly into a more defensive, "push" style. It was absolutely the right tactical move, and Sonmez donated a lot of unforced errors in each set. Putintseva's high, looping forehand down the line was especially effective. Sonmez kept trying to rush that ball and redirect it cross-court, but she tends to hit that shot too flat to consistently do damage. That's also the win...