History…  The Canadian Open is the second oldest tournament in the world behind only Wimbledon with 130 editions since it was found in 1881.

The event alternates the cities between Toronto and Montreal and with the women as well.

From 2021 in even-numbered years the men’s tournament is held in Montreal, while the women’s tournament is held in Toronto, and vice versa in odd-numbered years.

Rafael Nadal is the defending champion, as he won in both Toronto and Montreal in 2018 and 2019. With 5 titles here, he is behind only Ivan Lendl who still holds the record with 6.

Favourites/Top Seeds/Dark Horses….

Top Half

Daniil Medvedev is the top seed of the event and one of the big favorites for the title here and with even shorter odds given the absence of Novak Djokovic.

The Russian the final to Rafael Nadal 6-3,6-0 in 2019 in Montreal. In his previous trip to Toronto in 2018, when he was 63^rd in the world, he went from qualies to R3.

Many times, I’ve talked in the tournament previews about Daniil and how he is dependent greatly on his hard-court points and results and this is a little reminder again that his ranking relies on that surface and how he is going to fare until at least April next year.

Very interesting encounter could happen as early as R3 if both Daniil and Jannik Sinner meet there.  The young Italian ended the impressive run of youngster Brooksby in Washington and with 16-4 run on hard courts with most notably his final in Miami in March he is a dark horse in this portion of the draw. The only downside for him is that he hasn’t played in Canada yet so not sure how he could handle the conditions.

Sandwiched between seeds De Minaur and Hurkacz is the story of last couple of weeks – Jenson Brooksby. The 20-year-old American started the year at 310 rank and really took off winning 3 Challenger titles and most recently competing in the Newport final and a SF in Washington which should bring him into top 100 from Monday for the first time of his career.

This section of the draw has Nishikori as well, as the Japanese shows some life in recent weeks with a QF in Tokyo Olympics and SF in Washington, but after a SF and a Final in Canada in 2015 and 2016 he has lost the last 3 editions of the tournament in R1 to lower ranked opponents

4^th seed Andrey Rublev has fallen off the radar a bit in recent months and with his last 6 losses coming in while being a -200 favorite or more, his ROI took a major hit. Although he is 21-7 on hard courts in last 12 months his ROI is (-15.7%). He hasn’t won a match in Canada in 2 tries so far losing to Donskoy and Polmans while being a -220 and -440 favorite. Pay close look to him and he might offer good odds fading him.

In 2017 Denis Shapovalov received a Wildcard to participate in Montreal’s edition of Canada Masters. While being No.134 in the world at that time, he defeated Del Potro and most notably Rafale Nadal as a +800 underdog and felt in the semis to Alexander Zverev. The Canadian has failed to duplicate those type of results in his home country with a R3 and R2 exits in last 2 editions. However, he has a breakthrough year with a SF in Wimbledon and a top 10 debut so he will surely offer lots of upside for the bettors as his part of the draw seems manageable.

Bottom Half

Rafael Nadal returned to action last week in Washington after missing the whole grass court season and the Olympic games. After narrowly edging Jack Sock in R2 (he received a bye and didn’t play R1) he dropped the next one against Lloyd Harris as a -450 favorite.

He has 39-8 w/l record on Canada Masters and won last 2 events, but he is barely +0.7 ROI from this because losses to Shapovalov and Dodig in the past as a massive favorite derailed the overall good-looking record. The draw has put Harris in Nadal’s way once again in Canada and if the South African can win his R1 against a qualifier he will run into the Spaniard in 2^nd consecutive week.

Nick Kyrgios vs Reilly Opelka is a great and must-see matchup in R1. Nick is unpredictable as always and his antics are well known in the tennis world so we will see how he’s going to fare with the serve bombs that Reilly delivers towards him in a constant basis. Nick hasn’t won 3 consecutive matches since Aussie Open in February while missing good chunk of action and the whole clay court season, while despite hi height and game Reilly has struggled since making the Rome SF on clay with early losses on grass and only QF and R2 exits in Atlanta and Washington. The American is only 4-7 on hard court this year and so far, his serve hasn’t helped him to go deep in tournaments on even faster surfaces.

Cameron Norrie is having quite the year with 41-16 record and +29.2% ROI. He looks to continue this on hard courts as well as mainly those feats came on Clay and Grass this year. Worth to mention is his run to Los Cabos title in the middle of July, but early losses to Ruusuvuori in Atlanta and a run to in form Nishikori in Washington derailed a bit of his. Unfortunately for Norrie he has fallen in a bracket between Karatsev and one of the favorites for the title and 3^rd seed of the event – Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The Greek lost to Nadal in 2018 final but followed it up with a R2 loss to Hurkacz a year later in Montreal. He is 16-4 on hard surface for the year but losses in the -400 range to Hurkacz in Miami and Humbert in the Olympics put his Roi low at +4.7%. His draw looks nice for another deep run with the way the scheme currently is full of players trying to find their footing in the North American courts and US Open series.

Casper Ruud won 3 clay court events in a row before coming here. The 6^th seed of the event is currently on a 12-match winning streak, but with only 5-3 record on hard courts this year I shard for me to put him amongst the favorites for this event but confidence can do wonders sometimes and the change of surfaces may not change whole lot.

Proposed Bets…

Top half is where the so called in-form players are in so expecting a Medvedev – Shapovalov SF while Tsitsipas and Nadal should be facing each other from the other side with Daniil being the winner of the event.

Players that could surprise and derail everything –  Sinner, Norrie and Nishikori