zaklloyd

I'm not quite sure why Podoroska is priced this way. Her two year Clay stats are much better than those of Siegemund.
OK so she has yet to play this year but her T...

I foolishly opposed Delbonis against Ramos last week and came unstuck. I won't be making the sam...

I think this might go three sets, but I'm preferring Teichmann to take it at a little over e...

Tig has shown next to zero this year, but McHale is sub zero so in light of Tig's past Clay for...

I quite like the look of Krajinovic for this one.
I'm going to be cautious since Aliassime has been outperf...

Although the expected holds and service win points % favour Barty here, the Clay data is sampled over three years. With limited action last year, using two years was only showing minimal information, ...

El Ramos is full of fun trivia this week isn't he?
Today's fact is that his past 50 all surface match average rating within the TI model is identical to the decimal of that of Delbonis, with both players weighing in at 0.78, whatever that means!
I'm beginning to see it as an average of how many games the player has won/lost by as an average, implying that both players have won by an average of 0.78 games over their past 50 matches. If someone could please shed further light on these numbers I'd be very grateful.
I'm happy to stick with Ramos based on these numbers and a few other stats.
On three of the past four occasions where Delbonis has beaten Ramos on Clay, the court speed has been well below average speed. OK so last time out in Geneva, he was soundly beaten on a faster than average Clay court, but Istanbul, MonteCarlo and Estoril are very slow and I believe he's improved his numbers since Switzerland, and can take this, in what promises to be a pretty tight contest.
Del-Boy is no mug and is 'possibly' the better player on Clay overall, but Madrid is pretty quick and I think that will favour Ramos more with his serve being above average and Delbonis slightly below.
Ramos also has above average BP save & convert whereas Delbonis has slightly below average. Some may argue that these numbers mean nothing, but I think Ramos' match against could have had a completely different outcome against Fritz yesterday, who had a well below average BP hold score against Ramos' above average BP convert % and failed to save any of the three BP's thrown at him by the Spaniard.
I believe this will go the distance and it could well swing either way the stats are so close, but I'll take 11/8 when tossing coins all day long
I'll have a little bit of cover on the Overs as well I think

Ramos on the drift here but I like him for this.
A little bit of trivia.......His last 10 match average is higher than his lifetime average so I guess that means he's in pretty good shape. His best numbers tend to come on Clay whereas Fritz has a tendency to underperform a little bit on the surface. OK so Madrid has a well above average service hold rate, implying it's much faster than average, so maybe not so detrimental to Fritz as another slower tournament but Ramos sports decent advantage on 2nd serve points win %, an above average serve & return on Clay with Fritz below average on the return side.
Then come the Break Points. These - as pointed out - could be questionable due to small data samples [especially in ATP], but I do find them useful in offering a little insight into the 'potential' mindset of players in pressure positions.
Ramos has an above average BP Convert v the weaker than average BP save of Fritz.
Ramos has an above average BP Save v the 7% weaker than average BP convert of Fritz.
It's impossible to tell the sample size within the database since there's no numbers given, just percentages, but one would assume that if an ATP player has 1 break point for and against each match then there's a sample of at least 40 [20+20] out of 20 matches, so not drastic.
Will it make a difference? Let's see, but from what I can tell by all these stats combined, coupled with the fact 'overall' the stats slightly favour Ramos, then odds against is a decent bet for long term growth.
Swiatek let me down yesterday so taking it a little bit easy today.

The tournament winner could well come from the winner of this match, and I have my doubts about Barty.
I'm no expert, but the Australian appears to be going the long route in many of her matches, having seen 5 of the last 10 go the full distance!
Swiatek, despite not having seen much Clay action this year thus far, has only had 1 go the distance in her past 10 and overall, her stats are more positive than those of Barty.
Her past 10 match average is well above her past 50 average, whereas Barty's has dropped below and overall, it looks as if Clay is the surface of choice for Swiatek, whereas Barty probably prefers Hard court.
The speed of Madrid should give Barty more potential than the slow court of Charleston but she didn't smash Zidansek the other night as she should have done, which leaves me to question her ability to take on the French Open champ for the first time.
Another 50/50 match up with Swiatek being the value at odds against

Isner hasnt played on Clay this year but he's a pretty decent record at Madrid, making the Quarters on a couple of occassions.
The big server will undoubtedly benefit from the fast court speed and I think he'll steal at least a set, but the +1.5 is pretty poor value.
Both players are performing below their past 50 match averages on all surface and although Kec-Man is relatively unexposed to the Clay, he hasn't impressed, despite being up against Djokovic, Schwartzmann and Fognini in his past three matches.
Isner's best numbers over his past 50 clay matches are better than his a/s average suggesting he's very much at home on the surface, whereas Kec-Man still struggling to find his feet.
Should be quite tight. Isner BP Convert well below average as is Kec-Man's save.
I give Isner a slightly hesitant 50/50 chance with his 12% above average hold, making the 2.41 reasonably good value