zaklloyd

Jabeur must have a decent chance at taking something here.
A little frustrating at times. I strongly fancied her against Gauff at RG and she blew me out, then opposed her against Muguruza and she smashed me again, but happy to give her another chance at the price.
Sabalenka is slipping below her 50 match average and has an inferior expected hold based on long term Grass and short term All Surface form. Looking at the TI model she's also been playing well below par against common opponents.
Jabeur on the other hand is looking pretty strong of late so Wimbledon form aside, which slightly favours Sabalenka, I think Jabba gets at least a set here

Osapenko should be a tough nut to crack here.
Not a strong server but a pretty formidable return game [+7%], on a surface slower than average for Grass
Way below the price I'd usually look out for, but with some serious lack of grass form to go by this year, I'll take what I can.
In reasonably good form this year, her past 10 match average is above her past 50 match, plus she tends to do well against similar opponents.

I'm having a bit of the Mugu here.
I like Jabeur and she's been a good earner this year but I still have the sour taste in my mouth from when she played shockingly against Gauff recently.
Muguruza has not been in the best of form. Her past 10 match numbers have slipped - albeit marginally - below her past 50 numbers but she has a few things going for her this afternoon.
She wins service points on Grass some 7% above WTA average. For return, about 4% above average.
She has a first serve advantage and a 2nd serve point win % both 10% superior to that of Jabeur, and she's not prone - as far as I know - to puking up halfway through her matches.
Current ranking and longer-term ability would possibly price Muguruza in the 1.40 region.
She's probably had a few points shaved off her probability in light of her slight downturn over recent matches, so 1.60+ represents a good value bet IF she plays to her Wimbledon form.

I was quite impressed with the job RybaKina done on Svit yesterday.
I think this one will be much tougher for her with Sevastova showing a good improvement in her 10 match over 50
match numbers. She also has a bit more firepower than Svit on the surface, sporting a hold rate of almost 2% above average.
Her return game is also decent, but possibly no match for Rybakina's serve, which although tested yesterday, should be good enough to prevail.
My only concern for Rib-Eye is her inferior return v Seva's serve, which might play a role here if conditions are as slow as the majority of the Eastbourne population!
I love Sussex really :-)

I remember going down this very road just a few weeks ago. Backing Golubic north of 3.0 against Kontaveit, the match going first set to Golubic, who then found herself with a match point advantage, then failing to close the deal.
Naturally Roland Garros a different surface and I don't think Kontaveit's serve will be hampered quite so much today on grass, but again, Golubic does have an above average return game.
Looking at the TI model also gives a few clues. Across the last 10 matches on all surfaces as well as on todays surface, Kontaveits numbers have dropped below her 50 match average. Her performance this year is also falling below her 12 month form.
So on a slower surface , in miserable damp conditions, at the price, I'm prepared to give Golubic another small chance.
Playing a little cautious this time but almost 1.90 for a set is very reasonable in my opinion!

So, the grass finally gets into full swing?
I don't know if many punters/traders do much on grass or whether it's a time of year to have a few weeks off. There certainly isn't much form to go by so I'm guessing that for the most part, picking a winner is more about in depth knowledge of each player and their characteristics from having plenty of experience of watching them play?
For me, sadly I must just go by the numbers but I do think I have a little outsider with more than half a chance for today.
I've not been impressed with Svitolina of late. Her last matches - albeit mostly on Clay - have seen her numbers drop quite aggressively below her 50 match average. Granted sh made a decent recovery against the improving Badosa, but she went 4-1 up in the first and managed to lose it.
Eastbourne is pretty slow, and so is the court surface there! Svitolina's lack of fire power on the grass will possibly leave her vulnerable against Rybankina's return game, which is above average on the surface.
I don't think it will be a walk in the park for Svit and I believe that Rybankina can get at least a set out of this.

I'm siding with Krejcikova here.
She did to Sakkari what Swiatek failed to do, she destroyed upcoming superstar Gauff, she made Svitolina look like a player outside the top 100 and she's getting stronger with each match.
She should have a 5% hold advantage based on medium term Clay stats, and despite Pav's improved form, can't see her getting much out of this.
Would like a bit of a better price so opting for the -1 game.

Djokovic looks like exceptional value for this.
His medium term Clay stats are not quite as good as Rafa's, but his short term are superior.
This is backed up with the TI model, showing Rafa's past 10 performance average slipping below his past 50, whereas with Djokovic, he's shown significant improvement over the past 10 vs the past 50.
Common opponents scores telling a very similar story.
Looking at everything else being virtually identical, perhaps the Joker should be closer to 2.30-2.50?