PilotPK23

Odds the wrong way round in Nevolo's recent match against Tiafoe

Karlovic has won the first set in 50% of his matches priced 3-6 on hard court (8 of 16 matches). Nishikori has lost the first set on all 3 occasions against John Isner, the only comparable player on the tour to Ivo Karlovic.

See our full write up at http://goo.gl/vEBzrV

Odds show up wrong on this match, could you fix Moderator please?

We've backed Opelka 7-6 Set 1 at odds of 10, have a read of our free tip: http://goo.gl/SsTTME. Current ROI 26% over 321 tips on Betting Kingdom and 30% over 548 on our private tipping service (tennispilottips.com). Only ���������9.99 a month.

Ramos is generally a good player to back as a big underdog with a positive ROI over almost any time period. He's been in good form of late and is consistently under rated on hard courts so I think he has his chances today against a Nishikori who's looked a little worn at times recently. I think first set at 5.5+ is the best chance since it's the first set where Ramos usually puts in his best effort against the top guys and Nishikori often starts matches slowly. Indeed, Ramos has won 13 of his last 50 priced at 3+ but won the first set on 18 of those occasions. That's a 38% strike rate and a 10% difference between match wins and first set wins which is not being reflected in the bookie's prices which are only 5.5% apart. At 6+, He's won 4 of 28 but he's taken the first set in 8 which is a strike rate of 29%, and Nishikori has lost only 7 of 49 matches over the last year priced sub 1.5 but dropped the first set in 15 which is a 31% strike rate. If that isn't enough, Ramos has also gone past 5-5 in 10 of his 28 first sets priced at 6+ but only 11 of his 51 sets after the first set, and in their H2H he's won only 1 of 4 but 2 of 4 first sets. In one of those matches he lost 7-6 2-6 1-6 All in all, it really does seem like the first set is the place to go and none of these numbers suggest odds implying an 18% strike rate make sense. Something more like 25-30% would be my guess, probably odds of 3.75 making this a good return as long as these trends aren't miles off.

Reilly's DOB is wrong. He's 18.