paulmurphy

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  • Member SinceMay 3, 2012
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Tip Summary: 0.00% (0/0) in last 3 months | 0.00% (0/1) in last year | 77.91% (7189/9227) all time

Earnings Summary: +$0.00 in last 3 months | -$1,000.00 in last year | +$8,077.32 all time

ROI Summary: +0.0% in last 3 months ($0.00 turnover) | -100.0% in last year ($1,000.00 turnover) | +1.1% all time ($765,335.00 turnover)

Your Insight
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  • Roger Federer (SUI) d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 6-3 6-4
    at Miami Masters 1000 (USA)
    Hard Court, Final
    0 (153135) Aces +$0 ROI:+0.0% 0% 
    Apr 2 2017 09:25:23
    Roger Federer gives the real reason for his improved backhand:

    Federer:
    "I think the backhand has gotten better because I have been able to put in so many hours onto the racquet now," he told reporters following his fourth-round win at Indian Wells. "And since this year, I feel super comfortable with the racquet, and I think I have gained confidence stepping into it. I think it was the work that I had in [the offseason]."

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2017/03/roger-federer-racquet-change-backhand-rafael-nadal-indian-wells/64840/
  • Roger Federer (SUI) d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3
    at Australian Open ATP Slam (AUS)
    Hard Court, Final
    0 (153135) Aces +$0 ROI:+0.0% 0% 
    Jan 29 2017 01:44:51
    There seems to be no update on Fed's injury - not that that is a surprise.
    This is what he had to say after his last match:
    "I felt tightness throughout the match, and I felt like it slowed me down.
    I just hoped that maybe having the physio work on it, that it would make me feel better.
    But it didn't. It's not something I'm necessarily really worried about in any way.
    So that's a good thing."
    Asked whether he felt the problem would affect him in the final, Federer added: "I mean, no.
    "If I had to say anything right now, no."
    I certainly hope that's the case.

    Just to correct a misapprehension, there is no comparison between Fed's BH and Stan's BH.
    Stan's BH has developed into the most lethal and offensive shot in tennis in my opinion.
    He can hit huge both crosscourt and line equally well and that makes it even more dangerous.
    It was the shot that wrestled that FO match away from Novak a few years back for instance.
    Fed's BH is, as I've said, a thing of beauty (as is Stan's) but it's not in the same class as a weapon - nowhere near it.
    If it was Fed would try to use it more often.
    He favours his FH because it's by far his best and most offensive and powerful shot.
    It's worth noting too that Rafa has also had enormous success against Stan - their H2H is 15/3 Rafa's way.




  • Roger Federer (SUI) d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3
    at Australian Open ATP Slam (AUS)
    Hard Court, Final
    0 (153135) Aces +$0 ROI:+0.0% 0% 
    Jan 28 2017 05:14:31
    For Fed fans, of which I am one, here is the bad news:
    He has not beaten Nadal in their three past matches at the Australian Open and has not defeated his great rival at a major for nearly 10 years, since the 2007 Wimbledon final.
    Federer has a shocking 11-23 record against Nadal - a 32 per cent win rate, while he's 6-12 (33 per cent) in finals.
    In Grand Slams, the percentage is lower.
    Federer has a 2-9 record (22 per cent), while he's 2-6 in Slam finals (25 per cent).
    Depressing reading.
    And the key reason for those depressing stats is simple - and one which usually is the key to winning tennis matches - the match-up.
    Fed's BH is a thing of beauty but it simply can't hold up against the searching examination that Rafa gives it with his heavy, topspin FH.
    Time and time again Fed is forced to play backhands from around his shoulders or above - try making an offensive shot from that position - it's impossible.
    That kind of ball gives Rafa what he wants and feasts on - a short reply that he can hammer into the corners.
    It forces Fed on to the defence and Fed's chances at this level these days (and even back in the old days) hinge on being able to play an offensive game.
    Of course it hasn't helped that so many of their matches have been played on slow courts - they are a pestilence.
    But this court offers Fed some hope - more on that later.
    Now to the other piece of potentially bad news for Fed and his fans.
    Against Stan he took an MTO with a leg injury, the significance of which he played down in his post-match interview with Jim Courier.
    We've heard nothing much about it since but yesterday, Fed had a hitting session that was closed to everyone - including the media.
    It's the first time he's done that in this AO.
    It could be merely that he's working on a few surprises for Rafa - or it could be that the leg is a genuine problem.
    Or both.
    I have no idea but I do know that if Fed isn't fully fit he can't win this match.
    Now to the good news for Fed.
    The courts are (thankfully) faster this year.
    Many players have said it, the commentators have said it, Fed has said it.
    That's good enough for me.
    It's allowed him to come in more and also more easily play first-strike tennis, which is how he must play Rafa ... if he can.
    Federer has said as much: "I know this court allows me to play a certain game against Rafa that I cannot do on centre court at the French Open."
    It will.
    But will it be enough?
    Rafa's tactics will be pretty much the same he employed against Dimitrov, whose game bears genuine similarities with Fed's.
    Whenever possible he targeted Grigor's BH with his FH.
    On the occasions when Rafa hit too short, Dimitrov was able to go on the offensive (and with some success) but it's the template for how Rafa will attack Fed.
    Nothing will change in Rafa's game.
    It will be interesting to see if Fed does indeed have a surprise or two for Rafa but it's hard to see what he could come up with - I'd be surprised if he doesn't try some S/V at various times but he can't win a match against Rafa doing that.
    Finally, there's no doubt Rafa will be more tired.
    Those were a tough five sets he played against Dimitrov, physically tougher than Fed's against Stan and played a day later.
    But ... Rafa is as fit as any player ever to play the game.
    He relishes the grind - he has recovered many times in the past from gruelling contests and come back looking ready to roll.
    It's a factor perhaps but one that's unlikely to prove significant in the scheme of things.

    To summarise.
    If Fed can't stop Rafa playing against him the way he has been for the past decade or so then it's hard to see how the Swiss can win.
    Fed needs the ball on his FH as much as possible.
    In most of the matches he's won at this AO he's been up around the 80 per cent mark on FHs - if Fed can replicate that figure in this match he's got a huge chance - but Rafa won't let him get anywhere near that I fear.
    Ultimately it comes down to which player can impose their game and game plan on their opponent - and historically Rafa is the one who has been consistently able to do that.
    I desperately want Fed to win - he's the greatest player I've seen and what a way to bring up his 18th major against his greatest rival.
    But ... Rafa is his "greatest rival" because he's got the weapon to beat Fed, his FH, and he sure knows how to use it - he's had plenty of practice.
    I will be cheering for Fed and I very much hope I am wrong.


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Ace Summary: Received 1672 in last year, 153135 all time - Given 1850 in last year, 61523 all time

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