Jun 22 2009
Wimbledon, Great Britain
Level: Grand Slam
Draw: 128
Surface: Grass
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Rated: 0.83
Percentile vs all courts: 30.48%
Percentile vs Grass: 51.02%
Note that the lower the percentile, the faster the court is rated.
For an explanation on how court speed is assessed, click here.
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@D.Carson Jun 21 2009 04:25:53 A couple of requests, if I may: 1) Please don't send me any aces as I'm a very irregular contributor to this forum and there are many more deserving candidates whom you should consider. 2) For the sake of Liverpudlians as much as yourself, please don't "strip naked and do a charity run."
However, if you feel like making a suitable contribution to charity, may I suggest World Vision, who do such a wonderful job in all parts of the world.
Roger Federer 8/15 Andrew Murray 9/4 Andy Roddick 12/1 Novak Djokovic 12/1 Lleyton Hewitt 33/1 Ivo Karlovic 33/1 Tommy Haas 40/1 Juan Carlos Ferrero 125/1
Any thoughts on where the value is here?
To me Novak looks good value and may be worth a lazy dollar or two on JCF??
Looks like a bit of a heatwave hitting the second week of Wimbledon. No rain delays in the first week either! That's what happens when you build a roof...
Of the other matches, I'd guess rain would favour Soderling most, by producing a lower bounce. With his indoors experience he can adapt to that, Almagro will likely struggle. You'd also guess Sela would prefer it to Robredo, and maybe Seppi to Andreev.
I don't have a blog, but here's my ramblings on the men's singles. Feel free to disagree....
Top Quarter
Juan-Martin Del Potro - an excellent and rapidly improving young player, world #5. Being sure of exactly how far he can go is tricky. In pressure situations, he is mentally strong. His attacking groundstrokes are superb, hit hard and flat, they are very difficult to return. His serve has become one of the best on the tour, very fast and accurate, using his height advantage. It's also his greatest disadvantage though, as he looks clumsy when getting down to low balls, particularly when he is drawn forward from the baseline. He also makes a very high number of unforced errors when hitting the ball on the move. As a result of those weaknesses, grass is not his surface. He has only played 13 matches on grass in his career. For me, his progress is a matter of how far he gets before he meets somebody capable of exploiting the weak points, and his chances of beating Federer on grass are precisely zero. In the second round, he faces Hewitt, who is inconsistent these days and rubbish in tie-breaks, but he is in some sort of form and likes to return low and move his opponent around the court. That will be a very close match, which could go to five sets. Del Potro's serve tends to deteriorate through a long match, so there's potentially a big upset for Hewitt if he can hold his nerve.
Misha Zverev - not a contender for the title, but a very underrated player, capable of causing upsets if he has recovered from the groin injury at Halle. Tursunov is his first round opponent, and Tursunov has an ankle sprain sustained while winning the final at Eastbourne. Tursunov on form is obviously dangerous too, until he hits the self-destruct button.
Nikolay Davydenko - world #11, but absolutely awful on grass. He's got a nice draw, including facing Berdych in the 3rd round, who he has a 8-0 record over. Roddick will beat him if he gets to the 4th.
Andy Roddick - world #6, playing consistently well this year. Roddick has been drawn in a little pocket of big servers, but he is the king of the big servers, solid in tie-breaks, and should come through those tests to win the top quarter.
Second Quarter
Andy Murray - world #3, transformed in the past year. Since ditching Brad Gilbert, Murray has grown and matured. He very rarely swears or loses his temper on court in the way he used to. He has developed both his first and second serves, and although the second serve is still perhaps his only weak spot, it is much more difficult to return than a year ago. He has demonstrated that he has the ability to beat Federer consistently, one of the many players whose game Murray can dismantle. Murray is a winner, but does get nerves when reaching milestones, and does feel the weight of pressure. It is possible that the pressure could get to him at some point. It's likely that Murray will face Gonzalez in the Quarter Final, and this is the biggest hurdle other than the final itself. Gonzalez thrashed Murray at the French Open recently, and Murray appeared to be at a loss to break down the flamboyant attacking game of the Chilean. My guess would be that Murray might get on top of his second serve and take it in 5 sets. Note that some fuss might be made of Gulbis in the second round, but Gulbis, for all his potential, has been terrible this year.
Also in Murray's quarter are Wawrinka, Safin, Ferrero and Gilles Simon, but it would be a surprise if any of those four hang around for long. This is Safin's last Wimbledon, and it's likely that Murray will face him in the 4th round if he can up his game to last year's levels after losing 5 of his last 6 matches. Murray has never beaten Safin, so he's got to go down as another awkward opponent.
Third Quarter
James Blake - Blake is a polite 29 year old American with a good serve and big attacking groundstrokes. He has shown with his two appearances in the final of Queens that he can play well on grass. unfortunately he has underperformed at Grand Slams throughout his career, only managing 3 quarter final appearances on hard courts. At Wimbledon he has suffered a surprising early defeat every time. His first few rounds are tricky, so it's more than likely that he'll go home early again.
Tommy Haas - the 31 year old German is capable of some all-round sublime tennis, despite not having a huge serve or particularly powerful groundstrokes. He's got a good record on grass and previous defeats at Wimbledon have only been against strong opponents. A week ago he beat Djokovic in the final of Halle. If he can repeat that victory, he will surely make it to his fourth grand slam semi-final.
Novak Djokovic - the enigmatic Serbian has proved to be extremely unpredictable. He has a big serve and superb groundstrokes. On a hard court, he's capable of beating anyone on his day, but he has yet to really prove himself on grass. Last year he was distracted by the idiot sitting next to me while serving, he lost concentration and his service, going on to be comprehensively beaten by Safin. Djokovic is temperamental, doesn't fight hard in all his matches, and struggles with low groundstrokes and with players who disrupt rhythm by making him play awkward shots. He could have a tricky 3rd round match with Mardy Fish, and will need to find much better form than he displayed last week in order to beat Haas.
Fourth Quarter
Fernando Verdasco - In early 2009, Verdasco shook off his past form and appeared to be a new man as he produced extraordinary tennis at the Australian Open and followed it up with excellent, consistent tennis. Unfortunately it's starting to look like Verdasco 2.0 has crashed and he's returning to his old bad habit of playing badly while he's in the lead. He's suffered early exits from two grass tournaments in the last two weeks. Could struggle against James Ward in the First round, and is likely to lose to Mahut in the second.
Nicolas Mahut - The ageing, #146 ranked, injury prone Frenchman plays old fashioned serve & volley tennis which is awkward for many opponents. Capable of putting a run together to reach the fourth round or quarter final.
Ivo Karlovic - The man with the biggest serve on tour. Unfortunately he has no return of serve and his technique is generally poor. He's got good tactics for grass though, and can play very well, but has inexplicably gone out in the first round in all of his last 4 Wimbledon appearances.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - perhaps the most talented player on tour, he does some outrageous things with a tennis ball. His serve is up there with the best on tour, he can play almost any shot, and is comfortable coming forward to the net and playing on grass in general. On return of serve he tends to go for clean winners straight away, which is generally unwise. He can be a little fragile mentally, if he is not feeling 100% then he plays badly, and all too often he can suffer lapses in concentration to give away his serve needlessly. However, when he gets on a run of good form, he can be unstoppable, especially if the crowd get behind him. For me he's the 3rd in the queue and perhaps the only sensible long shot. Would need to be at his absolute best to beat Federer on grass though.
Roger Federer - the world #2 is out to regain the top spot. It would be daft to bet against him. He has a very easy first round match, useful since he's not played since the French open. Subsequent opponents should be Garcia-Lopez, Kohlschreiber and Soderling - all of whom will roll-over and lose in double-quick time. Hopefully he will face Tsonga in a very interesting quarter-final.
Semi-Finals
So I've got the semi-finals as: Roddick v Murray; Haas v Federer
On that basis, the final would be: Murray v Federer
If they do meet in the final, the match will hinge on whether Federer can attack Murray's second serve in the way he did at the US Open final last year, and to a greater degree on whether Murray can produce a good performance under the pressure. Federer knows that Murray can beat him. Murray holds a 6-2 record over Federer and has won their last 4 meetings, each one more comprehensive than the last. Federer has been visibly upset on court each time he realised that he would lose, similar to his loss to Nadal at the Australian Open. Federer also reacts badly when the crowd is against him. Murray will struggle to serve it out due to nerves, but should have enough margin to win anyway, probably 3-2. The bigger question is whether Murray can get past Safin and Gonzo to reach the final.
Tip: ATP Players can have an uncanny liking (or disliking as the case may be) of certain tournaments. These sorts of factors are not directly built into the Insight Tennis Model and often help explain sudden reversals of form.
Player Key: (seed/entry) player name (rank, match rating) (country)
: 0.41
